Thoughts on Carroll’s departure from USC

With the news of Pete Carroll’s departure from USC appearing to be rather certain, fans of teams who have aspirations of competing for a national championship are all asking the same question – “what does this mean for us?”

A few thoughts…

1. USC’s reign over the Pac 10 has officially ended and Rick Neuheisel had nothing to do with it. Now is the time for teams like Oregon, Arizona, UCLA and even Stanford to make their claim as the conference power.

2. If Mike Riley of Oregon State is USC’s top choice, then the rest of the country doesn’t have much to fear. Riley is a good coach, but I’m not sure that he has the right make-up to continue Carroll’s success.

3. What will be Carroll’s legacy at USC? Yes, I know the numbers – he won 80% of his games, won his bowl games and took home a national championship and produced two heisman trophy winners – all measure that would consider him one of the best of today.

4. However, I can’t help but wonder if he is such a media darling that his accomplishments are not put into proper perspective. His program appears to be on the verge of being convicted of major NCAA violations, he almost always managed to stub his toe against an overmatched opponent, was victim to the greatest upset in college football history (vs. Stanford), and despite all of the built in advantages USC had to offer, he “only” managed to win one undisputed national championship. I’m not saying Pete’s not a great coach, far from it, I’m just curious if these factors are going to prevent him from being considered one of the best of all-time.

5. The Pac 10 will likely lose some prestige if USC suffers in the win column the next couple of years, which is too bad because the conference is getting much better with strong coaches (Kelly, Riley, Sarkisian, Stoops, Harbaugh). You might argue that the Pac 10 has the strongest coaching lineup, even agains the mighty SEC. But let’s face it, the Pac 10 is college football’s version of Home Alone – they’re the forgotten child. In order to retain what prestige they have, another team is going to have to be perfect – but not just in record. They are going to have to satisfy the criteria of the media types judging them against the past Trojan teams more than their current competition. Not only will they have to be undefeated overall, they will have to win by a wide margin, beat a high profile SEC or Big 12 team and win their bowl game – perhaps all of this in consecutive years in order to get the attention they want. It may not be fair, but absent a strong USC team in conference play to validate their accomplishments, voters will fall back into old habits of forgetting about the left coast.

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Thoughts on how the NFL shows us why we don’t need a college playoff

The NFL playoffs start today. I’m so into it that I decide to write instead of watch. Let me rewind the clock and apply an NFL conversation to college football from the last two weeks when some NFL teams decided to rest their starting players, knowing they had their playoff position already determined. How would this fly in the world of college football?

A few thoughts…

Imagine a year in which Ohio State locks up the Big Ten Championship the week before heading into its final game against Michigan.

Under a college football playoff system, conference championship winners receive and automatic bid into the playoff.

Imagine, as was the case this year, Ohio State’s starting quarterback is suffering an injury so head coach Jim Tressel decides to effectively concede the game by not playing his quarterback and some of his starting offensive lineman (who also have been struggling with injuries throughout the season).

Is this scenario good for college football?

This is exactly what you would have if a college playoff were instituted.

As I said in my previous post, progress in college football that sacrifices tradition is not progress at all, and sacrificing college football’s most historic rivalries for the sake of a playoff is not in the best interest of college football.

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Thoughts on Feinstein picking on Bill Hancock

From what I hear, Bill Hancock is one of the nicest men around but that didn’t stop John Feinstein from going schoolyard bully in his most recent tirade against Hancock’s endorsement of the BCS. From Feinstein’s perspective, the BCS is so flawed that it’s not even worth considering as a viable option.

A few thoughts on Mr. Feinstein’s perspective…

1. Feinstein asserts that the idea of having a playoff system would contribute to more injuries is not only, “…just wrong, it’s absolutely hypocritical.” His argument is that since college football agreed to add a 12th game, plus some conferences have a 13th with a championship game, plus the bowl game takes the potential total to 14 – which is only 2 less than the NFL. Feinstein goes on to make a lazy statement by saying that, “So claiming the BCS Presidents care at all about injuries is absolutely untrue.”

2. There are two flaws with Feinstein’s statements. First, he has no factual information about that more games would not lead to more injuries. In fact, the idea of more games not leading to more injuries goes against basic common sense. What is one of the major concerns with the NFLPA in expanding to an 18 game schedule? That’s right, injuries. Rosters would have to be expanded and perhaps a second bye week included in order to accommodate the increased injury rate. It’s common sense.

3. The second flaw in Feinstein statement is comparing the college football schedule to the NFL schedule. As the old cliche goes, “it’s not apples-to-apples”. Seriously John, are you really comparing the rigors of the NFL for the first 14 weeks to that of the average college football team during the same time span? They’re not even close.

4. I have to agree with Feinstein, the “missing too much class time” argument is extremely hollow from the NCAA. I mean really, do college basketball players even go to class? If the NCAA were serious about using this as a legitimate argument, they would a) decrease the number of basketball games that can be played in the regular season, and b) and enforcing stricter academic requirements (which they are doing indirectly through the APR ratings).

5. Feinstein makes a common argument about the quality of the bowl system after the implementation of a playoff system when he says, “Not only is this wrong, the opposite is true—the bowl system would be enhanced.” His logic is that more bowls (e.g. Cotton, Gator) are included in the early playoff rounds and therefore receive a greater amount of prestige than what they currently have.

6. Feinstein is wrong. The problem with this argument is that it completely throws away the traditional match up the bowls were intended to create. I don’t ascribe to the idea that “progress” is always better when sacred things are involved. For an example, the formation of the Big 12 was great on paper except that it completely destroyed one of the best rivalries in college football (Nebraska vs. Oklahoma). Part of the reason why college football has become the best sport in America is because of the rich tradition. To sacrifice that tradition in the name of progress is to sell one’s soul. The BCS has already diluted the traditional match ups of the bowls (e.g. the Rose does not always feature the Big Ten champion vs. the Pac 10 champion), and so to say that the Rose Bowl would be enhanced when it does not include these two teams is just false. (As an aside, I will concede that the 2005 Rose Bowl featuring USC and Texas was better than the typical Rose Bowl match up, but that game was a once in a lifetime match up and should not be expected every year or even every decade.)

7. Feinstein again says that the regular season has no meaning because there are certain teams who have outstanding season, even undefeated seasons, who will never have a chance to play for the national championship. John is wrong on so many levels here I’m not sure where to begin. First, John proposes for Bill to do what he considers the unthinkable, “I’d love for Bill to walk into the locker rooms at Cincinnati, TCU and Boise State and explain how much meaning their undefeated regular seasons had.” What John is doing is preying upon Bill’s ill-advised statement to Dan Patrick on his radio show when he was caught off-guard and answered the same basic question, “I would tell them you had a nice season” (I’m paraphrasing). Of course Bill’s statement came across shallow and everyone is having a hey-day with it. But does Feinstein really want to say that the Bearcats regular season had no value at all on the basis that they were not permitted to play for the national championship (“Basically, those teams’ regular seasons had no meaning at all)? The Bearcats season had great value because they were the Big East Champions and got to play the defending national champion Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl against one of the greatest teams of the decade. Is there no value in that? The Bearcats season had great value because they did something unprecedented for their university football program and laid a foundation for years to come. Is that value completely invalidated because there was no opportunity to play for a championship? Perhaps the BCS biggest mistake is hiring someone like Bill who was not quick witted or prepared enough to articulate the value of a teams regular season to a radio jockey.

8. Second, Feinstein goes into the realm of hyperbole to make a point when he says, “If Boise State had beaten the Dallas Cowboys in their bowl game instead of TCU there are people out there who would say, ‘yeah but how would they do in the Big 12?’” Ok John, back off the ledge here. Those of us who watch and study these things know the Bearcats did not deserve a chance in the title game because as the season wore on and their competition increased, the quality of their wins were becoming thinner. When Utah beats Alabama in the Sugar bowl you use it as an opportunity to invalidate the BCS system. But when the Bearcats were exposed and overmatched against Florida, why isn’t that an opportunity to validate the system? Clearly the Bearcats didn’t belong and it would have been a greater injustice to allow them in the title game had Colt McCoy’s pass not hit the turf with one second remaining against Nebraska. In fact, that probably would have been the best thing that could have happened for BCS proponents because then it could be demonstrated first hand that the non-AQ conferences are so for a reason.

9. Third, we all know that the mission of FBS football is to a) fund the rest of the athletic department, and b) to raise the profile of the university in the eye of the public. Therefore it is essential for university Presidents to employ whatever strategy necessary to keep their stadiums full every game every year. If a playoff system is created, then a team’s goals change from winning every game, winning your conference championship, defeating your rival and making it to a BCS bowl to just making the playoffs. This is the way it works in college basketball (who has the most empty regular season of all) and the NFL – and once a team falls out of contention fans lose interest and stop coming. In the BCS system, a team like Cincinnati can capitalize and reap tremendous financial reward for its university on a magical season even if they don’t really deserve a shot at the title.

10. I not sure what John was thinking when he declares the TCU-Boise game the best of the BCS bunch when it was a pretty solid consensus that it was the worst! He guarantees that a playoff system would never deliver a dud game – like that never happens in a 1 vs. 16 match up in March Madness…or the silly play-in game for the 65th slot. Now John is insulting our intelligence!

11. John’s most humorous point was proclaiming that were would not be one unsold ticket for a college football playoff game. Hmmm…did he check the attendance records set at the ACC and Big East championship games the past couple of years (a mini version of a playoff)? That’s right, quite a few empty seats to determine a champion!

12. We may think that a traditional playoff is the most pure way to determine a champion, but playoff proponents have not adequately demonstrated that it is financially superior model to the one currently in place, and while espousing all of the problems that are to be solved by a playoff system they have not adequately addressed the problems that a playoff system would create.

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Thoughts on inconsistent arguments for a college playoff

Now that we’re moments away from the BCS National Championship, we’ve been able to soak up all of the loathing from media types about the lack of a college football playoff for the FBS conference to determine its national champion (though I confess there has been less this year).

A few thoughts…

One of the arguments used in recent days after the Fiesta Bowl, especially by fellow blogger John Feinstein, is that TCU and Boise St. were cornered into a game and not allowed to play with the adults so as not to bring attention to themselves in case of an upset.

The primary argument being used here is that the BCS system is invalid because we will never know who the real champion because it is not settled in a traditional playoff style format and the little guy was never given the opportunity to compete against the BCS conference teams.

Of course there are a few false assumptions there…

The primary assumption is that ONLY way to determine a true national champion is to have a traditional style playoff.  Now don’t confuse this with the argument expressed in the cliche of “settle it on the field” which is totally different.

The assumption goes that in an 8 team playoff, then the number 1 seed plays the number 8 seed, 2 vs. 7, etc.

Well, if you already know the the number 1 and number 2 teams – why not just let them play right away?

The assumption goes that the best (and presumably correct) team always wins the championship.

Is that true?  Were the New York Giants really better than the New England Patriots, or were they just better on that particular day (or that particular drive)?  Were the Duke Blue Devils really better than UNLV Running Rebels?  Were the New York Jet really better than the Baltimore Colts?

In how many different years in how many different sports could we say that the best team probably didn’t win the championship?  I would say more than what we are willing to acknowledge.

The point is that the traditional playoff system is not perfect and therefore if another model like the BCS exists it should be given credence for trying to accomplish its objective (creating a legitimate 1 vs. 2 matchup) when the landscape (119 teams vs. 32) is completely different.

The other assumption is that the little guy was never given a chance.

I’ll admit, there is some truth to that.  I’ll never really give Boise St. too much credit for their success because they do play in a very weak conference, and when they do schedule teams from BCS conferences they seem to cherry pick their spots.

Until Boise St. is able to consistently beat teams from BCS conferences in their non-conference schedule without having some kind of fluky situation determine the outcome of the game (e.g. first time head coach, hook & lateral, etc.) then they will get some credit.  Too much credit has been given and mileage taken from Boise’s Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma.  Time to beat the Sooners in Norman.  (Yeah fine, go ahead and point to wins over Oregon and Oregon State.  Child please.  These were bottom tier Pac-10 teams…remember what I said about cherry picking your opponents?)

What this assumption also overlooks is that just because a mid-major beats a good team in a bowl game (Utah over Alabama), it does not require the entire system to be turned upside down for one or two exceptions.  We like to make trends out of such small pools of data.

Why don’t these same writers blast the system for allowing Hawaii to get hammered by Georgia in the same bowl game the previous year?

Because their application of logic is inconsistent.

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Thoughts on Michigan’s hope at quarterback

Adam Rittebburg at ESPN reports that incoming freshman QB Devin Gardner will not enroll early to Michigan this spring.

So the question for Buckeye fans is, do is it matter?

A few thoughts…

1.  Forcier enrolled early in 2009 and took hold of the starting job heading into fall practice with the injury to Nick Sheridan.  Even though backup freshman Denard Robinson took some snaps in the opening game against Western Michigan and had an electrifying touchdown run, it was obvious that this was Forcier’s team, for better (at the beginning of the season) or worse (the conference schedule).

2.  Now with a full season of starting under his belt, and for his sake another season of weight training, Forcier will only be further imbedded into Rich Rodriguez’s system.  Michigan is not starting from the same point in 2010 at the QB position as they were in 2009.  There were zero viable candidates coming out of the 2008 season, so heading into the fall of 2009 you pretty much knew from the beginning that either Forcier or Robinson would get the job.

3.  Rich Rodriguez has some tensions to reconcile.  He has stated repeated that he wants to create competition at every position, but what he has not said and everyone knows that he does not want to have to start a true freshman quarterback to start the season again.  Everyone knows it’s too difficult to win a conference championship with youth at the quarterback position.  Yes, the Buckeyes were able to do it with Pryor in 2008, but the won mainly on the legs of Beanie Wells not Pryors arm, and they lost to the head-to-head match-up with Penn State.

4.  If Gardner wins the starting job out of fall camp then that only means he’s either a) better than Tim Tebow and the Buckeyes are in some serious trouble, or b) something has gone horribly wrong with Forcier (anorexia, injury, being mistaken for that kid on the cover of MAD magazine) and RR has been left with no choice but to open with a quarterback new to his system for the third consecutive year.

5.  It does not matter if Gardner is as good as he hyped – who rarely is as a freshman, see our own Terrelle Pryor as Exhibit A – there’s no doubt that he will play in his first season.  RR knows the faithful are beginning to grow restless, he knows he has a new boss to impress, he knows going losing three in a row to his two primary rivals is a real possibility, and he knows that Robinson’s future is as a slot receiver so he’s going to do everything in his power to try and catch lighting in a bottle.

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